The European debt crisis

The European debt crisis roiled markets all year, producing the most volatile trading since the 2008-2009 meltdown. That is, except in one market -- the euro.
Fund managers that bet on a volatile, wild year of losses in the euro are paring back positions against the single currency going into 2012 after its surprising resilience to Europe's sovereign debt crisis damaged their portfolios.
Many still expect market turmoil arising from Europe's debt situation and have kept options strategies that will benefit from volatility. But they have put on trades that will pay off as well if the euro zone recovers from the crisis.
While Europe's debt drama kept markets on edge for most of the year, the euro is only down 2.6 percent against the dollar in 2011.
That is not as bad as headlines from the crisis might have suggested. This slashed returns for investors who paid premiums for strategies aimed at capitalizing on a sharp fall.
"Our mistake this year, especially in the first half, was looking a lot at headlines in the euro zone and trying to read the politicians' complete nonsense," said Harald Hild, portfolio manager at FX fund of funds Quaesta Capital in Zurich, Switzerland.
Hild runs the FX Volatility fund under the Quaesta group, with assets under management of about $3 billion.
"For most of the year, we were in a risk-off mode and we were paying high premiums for downside strikes in the euro and nothing really happened. So we started to look at it from a different perspective."
Investors generally pay for downside strikes, or lower exchange rates, when they believe the currency is going down.
Hild said the fund still expects the euro to go lower in 2012, but he'd rather hedge this view using calendar spreads, which involve entering a long and short position on volatility -- a measure of a currency's moves in either direction -- but with different tenors.
This strategy essentially plays on expectations of where volatility is headed over, say, a one-year period. If an investor expects euro/dollar volatility in the short term, but sees subdued price movement in 12 months, then he goes long one-month volatility and sells one-year volatility.
So far, Quaesta's volatility program has recovered, albeit slowly. The volatility fund was up 2.2 percent in November and 1.9 percent firmer so far this year in a performance that Hild describes as "disappointing".
WRONG-FOOTED
What appears to have wrong-footed investors betting against the euro in 2011 was that European banks sold assets abroad to bring funds back home to cushion against troubles in the European financial sector. This repatriation process provided unexpected support to the euro.
Particularly in October, currency managers were caught on the wrong side of the trade as stocks and commodities rallied and the euro gained 3.5 percent.
The Parker FX index, which tracks currency managers, was down 1.3 percent in October alone and 3.11 percent lower this year until the end of that month.
Despite a slew of negative headlines this year, ranging from wrangling within the euro zone to the latest warnings of downgrades from ratings agencies, the euro has held up relatively well.
The euro had a far more dismal year in 2010 when it dropped 6.6 percent and in 2008 when it posted losses of 4.2 percent.
Implied volatility on euro/dollar, or a broad measure of uncertainty in the options markets, has also remained subdued in recent sessions relative to the VIX index, the stock market's fear gauge, and gold's implied volatility. There is anxiety in the currency options market about Europe's debt situation, but the tension has come down a lot.
Volatility, however, could ramp up again in 2012, with six European Union summits next year, two more than normal, on top of a host of extra Eurogroup events and meetings of finance ministers as they try to hammer out a comprehensive solution to the crisis. These events, for the most part, have been a major source of uncertainty for financial markets this year and that's unlikely to change in 2012.
SMALLER POSITIONS
London-based hedge fund GLC Ltd, with assets under management of about $1 billion, believes much of the mayhem in Europe has already been discounted and markets are not well-positioned for positive news.
As a hedge against the market's volatility, the fund has been running smaller positions than normal.
Even though GLC has been disenchanted with the way European leaders have handled the crisis, it believes the euro will survive and the situation in Europe's debt markets will improve, though in a volatile manner.
"Europe's policymakers, however, have left it too late to avert recession and much of the rest of the world is also suffering from an economic slowdown," said GLC in its latest note to clients and investors.
MARKET TURMOIL
FX Concepts, one of the largest currency hedge funds with assets under management of $4.3 billion, is still long volatility, calling for a U.S. recession and a breakup of the euro zone. But as a hedge to the firm's bleak view of the economy, "we have introduced models that have actually a positive tail," said Ron DiRusso, managing director of FX Concepts' Volatility Fund.
Positive tails suggest an upbeat outcome arising from either a resolution of Europe's debt crisis, or a more brisk pace of the U.S. economic recovery.
"So even in periods where mood is risk-on, or if the carry trade comes back, we have parts of the program that would make money in that environment," DiRusso said.
In several interviews with Reuters, FX Concepts chairman and chief investment officer John Taylor had painted a gloomy scenario for the global economy -- one in which the S&P 500 would precipitously drop to below 1,000 points and the euro would slide to parity against the dollar.
However, there were several months in the year, particularly October, when volatility declined and most risk markets and currencies such as the euro, Australian dollar, and emerging markets recovered.
FX Concepts' Volatility Program was down -0.88 percent so far this month and 5.85 percent weaker this year. The firm's Global Currency Program was down more than 19 percent as of December 22.
Bottomline, most fund managers are taking an "either-or" approach -- either the euro zone breaks up or everything is fine and well. And as the year winds down, more and more managers are looking at the latter scenario.
"Europe is not finished. We're not talking about Zimbabwe here. The euro is not a currency that will suddenly become worthless," said Simon Smollett, senior currency options strategist, at Credit Agricole in London.

Your 7 days program to Positive thinking

"Enlightenment" Your 7 days program to Positive thinking

I'm sure you have a bright idea hidden somewhere in the back of your mind that you just can't wait to test out. Of course you're not the only one with the bright idea. So what motivates you to churn those creative, or even inspiring juices to its utmost flavor?

It's always best to set up a personal goal where you can accomplish the most in record time, maybe like mowing the lawn in an hour before the big game on TV. A correct and positive attitude in whatever you do will make things easier, and even enjoyable.

Here are some tips to make it through the week even if you're just sitting in your favorite couch. An idea takes time to form in your head and is always at work while you are busy sitting.

Having a bit of positive thinking can help you realize things that are never thought possible. Thinking big is indeed the American Way and that what made our country prosperous.

1. Take passionate action towards living your life by design. Talk is cheap. Action = deposits in the bank of a passionately authentic future. Without it, passion is void.

This is a perfect example where dreams are made of where you start by tinkering with your mind, then with your hands. And if the idea weakens, you can always go back to it later until you finish it.

2. Commit to yourself as well as those you love to create powerfully a life you can love. Instead of reacting, commit to creating from your heart and soul, out of love rather than fear. The American Dream will always be there, but a dream will still be a dream without motion. Be amazed as the transformation begins.

3. Recognize and embrace the thought that each moment is perfect regardless of its outcome. Every time you hit on something that may appear too extreme, why not give it a shot and see if it will work. You will be surprised to see of there are other ways to get the task done in time. If you are not pleased with the outcome, decide to use that moment to learn from and make the appropriate shift.

4. Dwell completely in a place of gratitude. Learn to utilize what you have in your hands and make use of it in the most constructive way. Slipping into neediness will become less of a habit when you repeatedly shift towards gratitude, away from poverty consciousness.

5. Use a Passion Formula of Recognize/Reevaluate/Restore in place of the Shoulda/Woulda/Coulda whirlwind. The former is based in increased knowledge and abundance while the latter focuses on scarcity and lack. As you face people or tasks that may seem harder than scaling the summit of the Himalayas, allow yourself to realize that the task is just as important as giving out orders to your subordinates. You would rather be richly passionate!

6. Keep humor at the forefront of thought, laughing at and with yourself when possible. You may find yourself quite entertaining when you loosen up! I am yet to see a comedian ever go hungry even though his jokes are as 'old as great-grandma'. Life has so much to offer to allow you to mope around in self pity. Humor is very attractive, very passionate: life-giving.

7. Believe that you are the architect of your destiny. No one can take your passionate future from you except for you! Create your life authentically. As long as there's still breath in your body, there is no end to how much you can accomplish in a lifetime. The concept of thinking big is all about enjoying your work, which would lead to celebrate a discovery that is born within your hands. Watch everything flow into place with perfect, passionate precision.

It's interesting how people get wallowed up by something trivial as learning to use a computer, when nowadays that top computer companies are manufacturing software that even the kids can do it. I don't mean to be condescending, but that's the idea of not having any positive thinking in your life-you'll just end up as a dim bulb in a dark corner. So instead of subjecting yourself to what you will be doomed for, make your path by taking the first step with a positive attitude.

Your 7 days program to Stress management

"Have One Week, Will Relax" Your 7 days program to Stress management

They say there's more than one way to skin a cat. The same goes when you start tearing your hair out with all the frustration, grief, anxiety, and yes, stress. It's a state of mental conditioning that is like taking that bitter pill down your throat, causing you to lose your sense of self, and worse your sanity. Just thinking about it can drive anyone off the edge.

And they say that the proactive ones are already living off the edge.

As one stressed-out person to another, I know how it feels, and believe me there are many variants when it comes to stress. Coping with life, and carrying the problems that may or may not belong to you can scratch away the little joy and happiness that you can carry once you head out that door. You can't blame them for being like that; they have their own reasons, so much like we have our reasons to allow stress to weigh us down. They say that stress is all in the mind, well, what's bugging you anyway?

There are several ways to manage stress, and eventually remove it out of your life one of these days. So I'll try to divide it into a seven-day course for you and I promise it's not going to be too taxing on the body, as well as on the mind.

1. Acknowledge stress is good
Make stress your friend! Based on the body's natural "fight or flight" response, that burst of energy will enhance your performance at the right moment. I've yet to see a top sportsman totally relaxed before a big competition. Use stress wisely to push yourself that little bit harder when it counts most.

2. Avoid stress sneezers
Stressed people sneeze stress germs indiscriminately and before you know it, you are infected too!

Protect yourself by recognizing stress in others and limiting your contact with them. Or if you've got the inclination, play stress doctor and teach them how to better manage themselves.

3. Learn from the best
When people around are losing their head, who keeps calm? What are they doing differently? What is their attitude? What language do they use? Are they trained and experienced?
Figure it out from afar or sit them down for a chat. Learn from the best stress managers and copy what they do.

4. Practice socially acceptable heavy breathing
This is something I've learned from a gym instructor: You can trick your body into relaxing by using heavy breathing. Breathe in slowly for a count of 7 then breathe out for a count of 11. Repeat the 7-11 breathing until your heart rate slows down, your sweaty palms dry off and things start to feel more normal.

5. Give stressy thoughts the red light
It is possible to tangle yourself up in a stress knot all by yourself. "If this happens, then that might happen and then we're all up the creek!" Most of these things never happen, so why waste all that energy worrying needlessly?

Give stress thought-trains the red light and stop them in their tracks. Okay so it might go wrong - how likely is that, and what can you do to prevent it?

6. Know your trigger points and hot spots
Presentations, interviews, meetings, giving difficult feedback, tight deadlines…. My heart rate is cranking up just writing these down!

Make your own list of stress trigger points or hot spots. Be specific. Is it only presentations to a certain audience that get you worked up? Does one project cause more stress than another? Did you drink too much coffee?

Knowing what causes you stress is powerful information, as you can take action to make it less stressful. Do you need to learn some new skills? Do you need extra resources? Do you need to switch to decaf?

7. Burn the candle at one end
Lack of sleep, poor diet and no exercise wreaks havoc on our body and mind. Kind of obvious, but worth mentioning as it's often ignored as a stress management technique. Listen to your mother and don't burn the candle at both ends!

So having stress can be a total drag, but that should not hinder us to find the inner peace of mind that we have wanted for a long time. In any case, one could always go to the Bahamas and bask under the summer sun.

COACHING AN EASY WAY TO MAKE THINGS HAPPEN

Why Coaching is the Way to Go in Team Management

When you hear the word “coach”, what comes first into your mind? Do you picture a basketball team with a man/woman shouting out directions? Or perhaps a football team with a man/woman pacing to and fro and calling out the names of the players?

Coaching is no longer reserved to sports teams; it is now one of the key concepts in leadership and management. Why is coaching popular?

Coaching levels the playing field.

Coaching is one of the six emotional leadership styles proposed by Daniel Goleman. Moreover, it is a behavior or role that leaders enforce in the context of situational leadership. As a leadership style, coaching is used when the members of a group or team are competent and motivated, but do not have an idea of the long-term goals of an organization. This involves two levels of coaching: team and individual. Team coaching makes members work together. In a group of individuals, not everyone may have nor share the same level of competence and commitment to a goal. A group may be a mix of highly competent and moderately competent members with varying levels of commitment. These differences can cause friction among the members. The coaching leader helps the members level their expectations. Also, the coaching leader manages differing perspectives so that the common goal succeeds over personal goals and interests. In a big organization, leaders need to align the staffs’ personal values and goals with that of the organization so that long-term directions can be pursued.

Coaching builds up confidence and competence.

Individual coaching is an example of situational leadership at work. It aims to mentor one-on-one building up the confidence of members by affirming good performance during regular feedbacks; and increase competence by helping the member assess his/her strengths and weaknesses towards career planning and professional development. Depending on the individual’s level of competence and commitment, a leader may exercise more coaching behavior for the less-experienced members. Usually, this happens in the case of new staffs. The direct supervisor gives more defined tasks and holds regular feedbacks for the new staff, and gradually lessens the amount of coaching, directing, and supporting roles to favor delegating as competence and confidence increase.

Coaching promotes individual and team excellence.

Excellence is a product of habitual good practice. The regularity of meetings and constructive feedback is important in establishing habits. Members catch the habit of constantly assessing themselves for their strengths and areas for improvement that they themselves perceive what knowledge, skills, and attitudes they need to acquire to attain team goals. In the process, they attain individually excellence as well. An example is in the case of a musical orchestra: each member plays a different instrument. In order to achieve harmony of music from the different instrument, members will polish their part in the piece, aside from practicing as an ensemble. Consequently, they improve individually as an instrument player.

Coaching develops high commitment to common goals.

A coaching leader balances the attainment of immediate targets with long-term goals towards the vision of an organization. As mentioned earlier, with the alignment of personal goals with organizational or team goals, personal interests are kept in check. By constantly communicating the vision through formal and informal conversations, the members are inspired and motivated. Setting short-term team goals aligned with organizational goals; and making an action plan to attain these goals can help sustain the increased motivation and commitment to common goals of the members.

Coaching produces valuable leaders.

Leadership by example is important in coaching. A coaching leader loses credibility when he/she cannot practice what he/she preaches. This means that a coaching leader should be well organized, highly competent is his/her field, communicates openly and encourages feedback, and has a clear idea of the organization’s vision-mission-goals. By vicarious and purposive learning, members catch the same good practices and attitudes from the coaching leader, turning them into coaching leaders themselves. If a member experiences good coaching, he/she is most likely to do the same things when entrusted with formal leadership roles.
Some words of caution though: coaching is just one of the styles of leadership. It can be done in combination with the other five emotional leadership styles depending on the profile of the emerging team. Moreover, coaching as a leadership style requires that you are physically, emotionally, and mentally fit most of the time since it involves two levels of coaching: individual and team. Your members expect you to be the last one to give up or bail out in any situation especially during times of crises. A coaching leader must be conscious that coaching entails investing time on each individual, and on the whole team. Moreover, that the responsibilities are greater since while you are coaching members, you are also developing future coaches as well.